Here's the DEFINITION of 'Gambler's Fallacy'
When an individual erroneously believes that the onset of a certain random event is less likely to happen following an event or a series of events. This line of thinking is incorrect because past events do not change the probability that certain events will occur in the future.
INVESTOPEDIA EXPLAINS 'Gambler's Fallacy'
For example, consider a series of 20 coin flips that have all landed with the "heads" side up. Under the gambler's fallacy, a person might predict that the next coin flip is more likely to land with the "tails" side up.
This line of thinking represents an inaccurate understanding of probability because the likelihood of a fair coin turning up heads is always 50%. Each coin flip is an independent event, which means that any and all previous flips have no bearing on future flips.
HKL,
Instead of "coin flips" you can substitute "spins of the wheel" in roulette. It's the same logic.
Every time you have a dozen sleep 6 times in a row, there's still 2 chances in 3 that it will sleep 7 times in a row (ignoring the zero). And if it does sleep 7 times in a row, there's still 2 chances in 3 that it will sleep 8 times in a row. You are risking 200 units that you won't find a dozen sleeping 17 times. That means that you have 201 times that a dozen sleeps 6 times in a row and goes on to hit within 11 bets. If you didn't have a zero, your odds would be exactly 200 wins verses 1 loss. The zero makes the payoff unfair and that's what gives the house their edge.
No matter how many times you wait for a dozen to sleep, you can never change the odds against you. If you waited for a dozen to sleep 17 times and then started betting your 11 step marty, you would not have changed the odds. If you did, everyone would be playing that way. It would be boring as heck waiting for a betting opportunity.
I know what I'm saying doesn't appear to make sense, but believe me when I say that most of the old timers on this forum have been down this road.
One person has said that they have a bot that plays for a variety of sleepers followed by a series of marty bets but they are waiting for like 17 even chances missing and then betting like a 5 step marty that it won't go beyond 22 misses. For dozens they wait for a dozen to sleep like 24 times and then start betting on it. The bot plays all the time. It doesn't get bored even if it doesn't get to bet for hours. This person says that they are a net winner with their bot. I can't confirm this. They're looking for sleeping lines, streets, corners, splits and straight up numbers to bet on.
You could bet for the rest of your life and never see a dozen sleep 22 times in a row or the first time you see one sleep 17 times and you start betting on it, it could sleep another 5 times.
Your odds of a dozen sleeping 17 times in a row are much greater than for a dozen to sleep 11 more times every time it starts with 6 misses. You'll have many more wins if you start betting right after the dozen hits that it won't miss 17 times that if you start betting after it has slept 6 times. The problem is that a 17 step martingale costs much more than an 11 step martingale but the units you win when you wait for 6 misses before starting to bet are much, much less that the units you win when you start betting right after a hit. It's the cost on a loss that balances everything out.
Think about it. You'll see what I mean.
GLC
When an individual erroneously believes that the onset of a certain random event is less likely to happen following an event or a series of events. This line of thinking is incorrect because past events do not change the probability that certain events will occur in the future.
INVESTOPEDIA EXPLAINS 'Gambler's Fallacy'
For example, consider a series of 20 coin flips that have all landed with the "heads" side up. Under the gambler's fallacy, a person might predict that the next coin flip is more likely to land with the "tails" side up.
This line of thinking represents an inaccurate understanding of probability because the likelihood of a fair coin turning up heads is always 50%. Each coin flip is an independent event, which means that any and all previous flips have no bearing on future flips.
HKL,
Instead of "coin flips" you can substitute "spins of the wheel" in roulette. It's the same logic.
Every time you have a dozen sleep 6 times in a row, there's still 2 chances in 3 that it will sleep 7 times in a row (ignoring the zero). And if it does sleep 7 times in a row, there's still 2 chances in 3 that it will sleep 8 times in a row. You are risking 200 units that you won't find a dozen sleeping 17 times. That means that you have 201 times that a dozen sleeps 6 times in a row and goes on to hit within 11 bets. If you didn't have a zero, your odds would be exactly 200 wins verses 1 loss. The zero makes the payoff unfair and that's what gives the house their edge.
No matter how many times you wait for a dozen to sleep, you can never change the odds against you. If you waited for a dozen to sleep 17 times and then started betting your 11 step marty, you would not have changed the odds. If you did, everyone would be playing that way. It would be boring as heck waiting for a betting opportunity.
I know what I'm saying doesn't appear to make sense, but believe me when I say that most of the old timers on this forum have been down this road.
One person has said that they have a bot that plays for a variety of sleepers followed by a series of marty bets but they are waiting for like 17 even chances missing and then betting like a 5 step marty that it won't go beyond 22 misses. For dozens they wait for a dozen to sleep like 24 times and then start betting on it. The bot plays all the time. It doesn't get bored even if it doesn't get to bet for hours. This person says that they are a net winner with their bot. I can't confirm this. They're looking for sleeping lines, streets, corners, splits and straight up numbers to bet on.
You could bet for the rest of your life and never see a dozen sleep 22 times in a row or the first time you see one sleep 17 times and you start betting on it, it could sleep another 5 times.
Your odds of a dozen sleeping 17 times in a row are much greater than for a dozen to sleep 11 more times every time it starts with 6 misses. You'll have many more wins if you start betting right after the dozen hits that it won't miss 17 times that if you start betting after it has slept 6 times. The problem is that a 17 step martingale costs much more than an 11 step martingale but the units you win when you wait for 6 misses before starting to bet are much, much less that the units you win when you start betting right after a hit. It's the cost on a loss that balances everything out.
Think about it. You'll see what I mean.
GLC