Mathematically waiting for a dozen to miss 6 times and then betting it 11 times with a martingale is the same as not waiting for 6 misses in a row and betting it for an 11 step martingale. It's just that it will take a lot longer for you finally have a dozen sleep 17 times in a row. Think about this. If you were betting an 11 step marty continuously on a dozen, you will have more losses, but you will be winning a unit for every time the dozen hits within 11 spins. By waiting 6 hits before starting to bet, you give up a lot of wins between 1 and 6.
The reason the math doesn't change is because the wheel doesn't know that the dozen has missed the last 6 times. When you place your bet on the 7th miss, it could be the 1st miss from the wheel's perspective.
I'm as guilty of posting systems based on this aspect of gambler's fallacy as the next guy. As a matter of fact I posted a topic titled "Due". It's one of the curses of the internet. If you say something stupid it's out there for the whole world to see. That's why nude selfies are a no, no. It's the same thing I tell people who start smoking. "If you live long enough, you'll regret starting this habit because it's a thousand times harder to stop it than to start it.
It's kind of like starting to eat fried foods. If you live long enough, you'll regret it. Like I do.
Cheers,
GLC
P.S. I didn't fail at math, but it was so long ago that your question is way over my pay grade.
P.S.S. Having said all that, if you like the system and can stand a progression loss or two, have fun. You may be one of the lucky ones.
P.S.S.S. From a purely math perspective, it's no worse than any other system. As a matter of fact, from a mathematical perspective, it's exactly the same as any other system.
The reason the math doesn't change is because the wheel doesn't know that the dozen has missed the last 6 times. When you place your bet on the 7th miss, it could be the 1st miss from the wheel's perspective.
I'm as guilty of posting systems based on this aspect of gambler's fallacy as the next guy. As a matter of fact I posted a topic titled "Due". It's one of the curses of the internet. If you say something stupid it's out there for the whole world to see. That's why nude selfies are a no, no. It's the same thing I tell people who start smoking. "If you live long enough, you'll regret starting this habit because it's a thousand times harder to stop it than to start it.
It's kind of like starting to eat fried foods. If you live long enough, you'll regret it. Like I do.
Cheers,
GLC
P.S. I didn't fail at math, but it was so long ago that your question is way over my pay grade.
P.S.S. Having said all that, if you like the system and can stand a progression loss or two, have fun. You may be one of the lucky ones.
P.S.S.S. From a purely math perspective, it's no worse than any other system. As a matter of fact, from a mathematical perspective, it's exactly the same as any other system.