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Re: Random Thoughts

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Quote
There is an important thing here around statistical advantage of same element defining the next spin. What if we remove cycles of length 1, do we see any difference in ratios. Can cycles of length 1 be exploited?  Can cycles greater than length 1 be exploited? In her video it has been shown that Priyanka avoided cycles of length 1. #TriggeringBias #Cycles
http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=15938.255 (page 18 )

Cycle Length28.83%71.17%24.95%37.24%28.28%9.54%
Cycle Length (same)44.98%33.41%17.19%4.42%
Cycle Length (different)0.00%42.01%42.09%15.90%
CL1 Ignored30.37%69.63%24.95%37.24%28.28%9.54%
CL1 Ignored (same)0.00%60.91%35.10%3.99%
CL1 Ignored (different)35.84%26.91%25.30%11.96%

In general, whether the cycle length is the same or different, is not affected.
Under normal circumstances cycle length 1 to 1 had the highest ratio, but now with CL1 ignored, cycle lengths 2 to 2 and 3 to 3 have increased ratios instead.
I guess that having an early repeat with cycle length 1 has also reduced, but I can't say I yet understand what the exploitative advantage is as of yet?

Although I haven't yet exhausted the stats here's all my tests I've done so far...

QUAD CYCLES CONSTANT RATIOS(BETWEEN 2 CYCLES)
SameDifferent1234
Defining Quad55.48%44.52%
Defined by Quad 1 to Same/Different54.50%45.50%
Defined by Quad 2 to Same/Different65.31%34.69%
Defined by Quad 3 to Same/Different48.83%51.17%
Defined by Quad 4 to Same/Different55.42%44.58%
Defined by 1 to X54.50%15.52%15.12%14.86%
Defined by 2 to X14.54%55.84%14.50%15.11%
Defined by 3 to X11.53%33.39%43.82%11.26%
Defined by 4 to X14.76%15.63%14.19%55.42%
Cycle Length28.83%71.17%24.95%37.24%28.28%9.54%
Cycle Length (same)44.98%33.41%17.19%4.42%
Cycle Length (different)0.00%42.01%42.09%15.90%
Cycle Length X to same24.66%37.16%28.13%9.27%
Cycle Length X to different75.34%62.84%71.87%90.73%
Cycle Length 1 to X24.66%36.72%29.40%9.22%
Cycle Length 2 to X25.47%37.16%27.79%9.59%
Cycle Length 3 to X24.25%37.79%28.13%9.83%
Cycle Length 4 to X25.76%37.26%27.70%9.27%
CL1 Ignored30.37%69.63%24.95%37.24%28.28%9.54%
CL1 Ignored (same)0.00%60.91%35.10%3.99%
CL1 Ignored (different)35.84%26.91%25.30%11.96%
CL234 (CL1 Ignored) to same37.14%28.52%9.45%
CL234 (CL1 Ignored) to different62.86%71.48%90.55%
CL2 (C1 Ignored) to X25.24%37.14%28.07%9.55%
CL3 (C1 Ignored) to X24.36%37.58%28.52%9.54%
CL4 (C1 Ignored) to X25.56%36.60%28.38%9.45%
CL1 Ignored1st spin ignored40.47%59.53%49.62%37.68%12.71%
CL1 Ignored (same)1st spin ignored60.91%35.10%3.99%
CL1 Ignored (different)1st spin ignored41.94%39.43%18.63%
CL234 (CL1 Ignored) to same1st spin ignored49.68%37.71%12.70%
CL234 (CL1 Ignored) to different1st spin ignored50.32%62.29%87.30%
CL2 (C1 Ignored) to X1st spin ignored49.68%37.54%12.78%
CL3 (C1 Ignored) to X1st spin ignored49.68%37.71%12.61%
CL4 (C1 Ignored) to X1st spin ignored49.17%38.13%12.70%

Priyanka's last 2 videos miss out spin 1 entirely, so there may be more advantage to be gained there...

Re: For sharp cats or wanna become ones without voodoo.

Re: For sharp cats or wanna become ones without voodoo.

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Christian Kaisan , one of the sharpest European  professional roulette players is applying this strategy.



Just google in Christian Kaisan  you tube and you shall see.I


Interesting video  with him at the Wiesbaden casino .

Re: Dig-A-Doz

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This part confused me, as you took -1 and didn't continue with 2 units, but reset back to 1 unit.

I see... Yes, you are right. Sorry for confusion. Strictly speaking the next bet should have been 1st @ 2u and was a winner! So after that would drop back to 1u for next line.
(1unit: That was just bit of my own cautious money management going on there)

Remember to bet only with a trigger - this means you often have to sit out spins until one occurs...

The "original" GLAT progression can also be used if preferred:

Quote
Each line I will call a set of W/L's.


1.  W   Ends set.  If at a new profit, reset to 1 unit else stay at same bet size and start a new set.


2. LW   Ends Set.  If at a new profit, reset to 1 unit else stay at same bet size and start a new set.


3. LLW   Ends set.  Neutral set.  No bet size change.  Start a new set.


4.  LLLW  Ends set.  -1  Very small loss, so start a new set at same bet size.


5.  LLLLW  Ends set.  -2  Getting into losses, so play next set at +1 unit added to bet size.


6.  LLLLL...W  The 1st W ends set.  Number of L's = 5 or more.  This will keep bet sizes from escalating when we hit our sleeping dozen.  As soon as we have a Win it ends this set and we increase our bet size by +1 unit for next set.

These 6 sets should cover every possibility.  Sets 1 & 2 are our winning sets.

If you find yourself betting a large bet size and you have a few wins in a row, you might consider decreasing your bet size but not all the way back to 1 rather than staying at the same level just in case you're about to go into another losing series.

Remember, Risk vs Reward.  Decision time.

Good Luck,
A.

Re: Rolletti's Session Flashlights for denzie

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A slow trott session.
Did not get a fast one. Will post when I get one.

Re: Winkel´s GUT-Blog - Questions and Answers -

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Sirs,

I read some quotes of "roletti" using this tracker.

I wanna express: I found some misleading and falty declarations in the way GUT is played.

Pls don´t use this software it is leading you wrong.

Re: Winkel´s GUT-Blog - Questions and Answers -

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Just because it doesnt follow GUT does not mean it cannot be good.

Re: Rolletti's Session Flashlights for denzie

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Please Winkel keep your comments about my game play for yourself. The tracker is the best one I ever saw to display the trott.

I don't play the GUT bet strategy in the same way as you do, which is still no invitation for your comments.

Thank you!

Re: Winkel´s GUT-Blog - Questions and Answers -

Re: Winkel´s GUT-Blog - Questions and Answers -

Re: PINHEAD

Re: Steve's computers

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@Steve

Hi Steve,

I followed your free trail course and tried to apply the VB to immersive roulette on unibet. It is really hard becouse they change camera's every couple of seconds. My question to you is, do you have some sort of a guideline when the JAA software trail will be available? I lost alot of money and i hope i can get it back, but i only want to use the best method.

Thanks in advance,

Jottem15
(my first post :xd:)

Why did you try it with real money? If it's your first time I would play virtual. And immersive not let you see the wheel clearly. It's one of the last though to bet after ball release. But the camera's take care that issue very smart.

There are other wheels that are much better . Don't forget you can adjust most viewpoints.

Re: Random Thoughts

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Let's try again... hopefully this will make more sense too:


Defined by Total (same): 24278 (55.%) (different): 19485 (45.%)


Cycle Lengths - same or different to previous cycle length

CL1234 Totals (same): 12616 (29.%) (different): 31146 (71.%)

Cycle Lengths (CL1 ignored) - same or different to previous cycle length

CL234 Total (same): 13292 (40.%) (different): 19551 (60.%)

Cycle Lengths (CL1 ignored then 1st bet ignored) - same or different to previous cycle length

CL234 Total (same): 13292 (30.%) (different): 30471 (70.%)


Cycle Lengths - overall general stats

CL1234 Totals 1: 10920 (25.%) 2: 16296 (37.%) 3: 12374 (28.%) 4: 4173 (10.%)

Cycle Lengths (CL1 ignored) - overall general stats

CL234 Totals 2: 16296 (50.%) 3: 12374 (38.%) 4: 4173 (13.%)

Cycle Lengths (CL1 ignored then 1st bet ignored) - overall general stats

CL234 Totals 1: 10920 (25.%) 2: 16296 (37.%) 3: 12374 (28.%) 4: 4173 (10.%)


Cycle Lengths - depending on whether the defining quad is same/different to previous cycle

CL1234 Totals (same) 1: 10920 (45.%) 2: 8111 (33.%) 3: 4173 (17.%) 4: 1074 (4.%)
CL1234 Totals (different) 1: 0 (0.%) 2: 8185 (42.%) 3: 8201 (42.%) 4: 3099 (16.%)

Cycle Lengths (CL1 ignored) - depending on whether the defining quad is same/different to previous cycle

CL234 Totals (same) 2: 8096 (61.%) 3: 4666 (35.%) 4: 530 (4.%)
CL234 (different) 2: 8200 (42.%) 3: 7708 (39.%) 4: 3643 (19.%)

Cycle Lengths (CL1 ignored then 1st bet ignored) - depending on whether the defining quad is same/different to previous cycle

CL234 Totals (same) 2: 8096 (61.%) 3: 4666 (35.%) 4: 530 (4.%)
CL234 (different) 1: 10920 (36.%) 2: 8200 (27.%) 3: 7708 (25.%) 4: 3643 (12.%)


Cycle Lengths - which cycle length will most likely be the same or different to the previous cycle length

CL1/1234 1: 2693 (25.%) 2: 6055 (37.%) 3: 3481 (28.%) 4: 387 (9.%) to same
CL1/1234 1: 8226 (75.%) 2: 10241 (63.%) 3: 8893 (72.%) 4: 3786 (91.%) to different

Cycle Lengths (CL1 ignored) - which cycle length will most likely be the same or different to the previous cycle length

CL2/234 2: 8096 (50.%) 3: 4666 (38.%) 4: 530 (13.%) to same
CL2/234 2: 8199 (50.%) 3: 7708 (62.%) 4: 3643 (87.%) to different

Cycle Lengths (CL1 ignored then 1st bet ignored) - which cycle length will most likely be the same or different to the previous cycle length

CL2/234 2: 8096 (37.%) 3: 4666 (29.%) 4: 530 (9.%) to same
CL2/234 2: 13700 (63.%) 3: 11694 (71.%) 4: 5076 (91.%) to different


If Cycle Length is 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 then what cycle length will we expect next time providing the defining quad is the same

CL1 to CLX (same): 2693   (45.%) 2000   (33.%) 1046   (17.%) 256   (4.%)
CL2 to CLX (same): 4151   (46.%) 2988   (33.%) 1564   (17.%) 392   (4.%)
CL3 to CLX (same): 3001   (44.%) 2320   (34.%) 1171   (17.%) 103   (4.%)
CL4 to CLX (same): 1075   (45.%) 803   (34.%) 323   (5.%) 392   (17.%)

If Cycle Length is 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 then what cycle length will we expect next time providing the defining quad is different

CL1 to CLX (diff): 0   (0.%) 2010   (41.%) 2163   (44.%) 751   (15.%)
CL2 to CLX (diff): 0   (0.%) 3067   (43.%) 2964   (41.%) 1170   (16.%)
CL3 to CLX (diff): 0   (0.%) 2356   (42.%) 2310   (42.%) 284   (16.%)
CL4 to CLX (diff): 0   (0.%) 752   (42.%) 893   (16.%) 764   (42.%)

If Cycle Length is 2 or 3 or 4 (CL1 ignored) then what cycle length will we expect next time providing the defining quad is the same

CL2/234 to CLX (same): 4152   (46.%) 2989   (33.%) 1565   (17.%) 393   (4.%)
CL3/234 to CLX (same): 3002   (44.%) 2321   (34.%) 1172   (17.%) 324   (5.%)
CL4/234 to CLX (same): 1076   (45.%) 804   (34.%) 393   (17.%) 104   (4.%)

If Cycle Length is 2 or 3 or 4 (CL1 ignored) then what cycle length will we expect next time providing the defining quad is different

CL2/234 to CLX (diff): 0   (0.%) 3068   (43.%) 2965   (41.%) 1171   (16.%)
CL3/234 to CLX (diff): 0   (0.%) 2357   (42.%) 2311   (42.%) 894   (16.%)
CL4/234 to CLX (diff): 0   (0.%) 753   (42.%) 765   (42.%) 285   (16.%)


Can the cycle length help us to guess whether spin 2 (spin 1 is the final result of the last cycle that is brought forward to the next cycle) will be the same as the defining quad

CLX to defining quad on spin 2 (same): 2693   (25.%) 4151   (38.%) 3001   (27.%) 1075   (10.%)
CL234 to defining quad on spin 2 (same): 4152   (50.%) 3002   (36.%) 1076   (13.%)

Can the cycle length help us to guess whether spin 2 (spin 1 is the final result of the last cycle that is brought forward to the next cycle) will be different to the defining quad

CLX to defining quad on spin 2 (diff): 8430   (25.%) 12481   (37.%) 9628   (29.%) 3193   (9.%)
CL234 to defining quad on spin 2 (diff): 12482   (49.%) 9629   (38.%) 3194   (13.%)

Re: PINHEAD

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16/20 Games won

(Again 8/10 games won)....guess i have to accept these stats? 80% winrate flatbet isn't so bad afterall??  :question:

To improve these stats, try a lower wingoal,...

Re: PINHEAD


Re: Variance

Re: Swing Selection

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Archer, first, welcome to the forum.

I have spent a fair amount of time applying technical analysis methods from stochastics and moving averages to hand charting.  As investing is said to be a random walk, I was intrigued to see if tools to manage the randomness could be applied to this form of random.  I did a lot of charting, including many examples on this forum, that gave visuals that are remarkably similar to what we see from charts for a stock or a commodity.  You can develop fairly sophisticated triggers to catch trends in the movement like what you propose here.  I like your approach and encourage you to find some of the posts from various guys in this community that might save you from reinventing the wheel or trigger new thoughts that can build on what you have here.  I'm looking forward to seeing how your efforts progress on this.  It's really fascinating!

Re: Variance

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In gambling:

Variance = Luck.  Good or bad.  Whenever you see this word in gambling, replace it with luck.  Furthermore, it's not possible to side step luck by using statistics.

Over time, luck isn't what's really consuming your bankrolls, it's the house edge.  This is easily proven mathematically.

Re: Ace of Spades

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Remember your old Ace of Spades?
Time to remake it!

Thanks

Re: Variance

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There are lies, there are damn lies but the worst kind of  all are STATISTICS .     Benjamin Disraeli .
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