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Re: Hot threesomes

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I'll explain why it could work.

If a dealer spun consistently (on the right wheel) and those consistent spins meant areas of the wheel repeated, and the repeats werent mere coincidence, then you may have an edge by betting on the same sector. It would be further helped if there was a bias in that sector (although a bit hard to know with so few spins).

But why limit it to hitting the same sector? Why not look at +9 pockets, -4 pockets and so on? Then you are getting into dealer signature.

And extend the bias analysis by looking at a larger sample of spins.

There's so much more than could be done. Even the most evil person around (Caleb) pointed out its a step in the right direction.

Re: Hot threesomes

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But why limit it to hitting the same sector? Why not look at +9 pockets, -4 pockets and so on? Then you are getting into dealer signature.

Without knowing the release point, or what number is under the ball when it's released - you can't use dealer signature (at least not from a list of spins without seeing it with your own eyes). When a dealer is consistent they won't hit the same number(s) or their neighbors but they will more than likely hit the same sector as it corresponds to the release point number.
Using a bias wheel approach with recorded spins (like the roulette site) doesn't help much. I've plugged the spins into RX as I play and it's usually giving a bias wheel result - in order to have enough spins to know for sure, it would take more than most people can sit through and record. You could have 1,000 spins and it cans how a bias wheel when there is none. The data needed is too great.
Good "luck" (damn I really have to stop using that word) though - will see how it plays out.

Re: Hot threesomes

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You'll find most dealers just pick up the ball and spin without delay, and in such a case the last winning number is closely related to the release point. And the actual release point isnt as relevant as you might think. Rotor orientation and time are the most important factors.

Re: New system/idea: Mist Trap

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Stats are in and more tests have been done:
*The streaks test failed on the 2nd data set
*There is no pattern re: best stages to play
*There is no pattern re: best spin numbers to play

That just leaves the original method of knowing when to start betting through to the end of a cycle (max spin = 25); has so far passed both data sets @ 10,000 spins. The same method will now be repeated over 2 x 1 million spin data sets.

Re: Random Thoughts

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I've almost figured out how the bets are made in the videos that had been posted. Maybe it could help us understand what Pri is doing and why?

You can see I succesfull bet is made in two part. First a large number bet, then a follow up bet but with less number. It's a kind of parlay. Using the winnings for the first bet to make a second bet.

Pri also uses virtual losses and wins in the video.

You can also see that cycles of 1 are completely ignored.

Code: [Select]
Number	Quad	Cycle quad	W/L	Bet	Why?			
29 4
3 1
9 1 1 Bet 2 - 3 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
26 3 W Bet 1 - 3 We won our first bet. Now we bet the last two quads
27 3 3 W Bet 1 - 2 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
4 1 W Bet 1 - 3 We won our first bet. Now we bet the last two quads
27 3 3 W Bet 1 - 2 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
32 4 W Bet 3 - 4 We won our first bet. Now we bet the last two quads
18 2 L No bet We lost. Wait for a virtual win.
1 1 No bet
7 1 1 Bet 2 - 3 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
28 4 W No bet No bet. We wait for the virual win.
27 3 VL No bet Virtual loss.
24 3 3 Bet 1 - 2 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
5 1 W No bet No bet. We wait for the virual win.
7 1 1 VW Bet 2 - 3 - 4 Virtual Win. End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
28 4 W Bet 1 - 4 We had our virtual win. Now we bet again the last two quads.
2 1 1 W Bet 2 - 3 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
15 2 W Bet 1 - 2 We won our first bet. Now we bet the last two quads
31 4 L No bet We lost. Wait for a virtual win.
30 4 4 No bet ??? No ideal why we dont make a bet here…
14 2 VW No bet Virtual win.
29 4 4 VW Bet 1 - 2 - 3 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
31 4 4 L No bet Here we lost our bet. Now we wait for a virtual win.
36 4 4 No bet
35 4 4 No bet
5 1 No bet
11 2 No bet
20 3 No bet
23 3 3 No bet
23 3 3 No bet
1 1 No bet
9 1 1 No bet No bet. We wait for the virual win.
27 3 Bet 1 - 3 Virtual win. Bet all the other quads. This bet is still active.
19 3 3 W Bet 1 - 2 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
7 1 W Bet 1 - 3 We won our first bet. Now we bet the last two quads
15 2 L No bet Lost
10 2 2 Bet 1 - 3 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
16 2 2 L No bet Lost
12 2 2 No bet
10 2 2 No bet
4 1 No bet
26 3 No bet
16 2 2 No bet
15 2 2 No bet
22 3 No bet
31 4 No bet
25 3 3 No bet
9 1 Bet 2 - 4 Virtual win. Bet all the other quads. This bet is still active.
11 2 W Bet 1 - 2 - 3 Here we see a new trend. Our previous cycle was lenght of 3. Now we bet it will also be 3. Bet the 3 previous quads.
23 3 3 W Bet 1 - 2 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
25 3 3 L No bet
14 2 Bet 1 - 4 Here we switch bet. We now bet the two missing quads because we bet for a cycle of 3.
2 1 W Bet 1 - 2 - 3 Our previous cycle was lenght of 3. Now we bet it will also be 3. Bet the 3 previous quads.
5 1 1 W Bet 2 - 3 - 4 ??? Why bet? We did not have a virtual win here.
29 4 W Bet 2 - 3 We now bet the two missing quads because we bet for a cycle of 3.
20 3 W Bet 1 - 3 - 4 Our previous cycle was lenght of 3. Now we bet it will also be 3. Bet the 3 previous quads.
2 1 1 W Bet 2 - 3 - 4 End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
24 3 W Bet 2 - 3 We now bet the two missing quads because we bet for a cycle of 3.
16 2 W Bet 1 - 2 - 3 Our previous cycle was lenght of 3. Now we bet it will also be 3. Bet the 3 previous quads.
12 2 2 W END


How did you manage to figure all that out!?  :o Can you explain why she is waiting for virtual wins or losses - what is the trigger for that and how does it seem to work exactly...? Lastly, how is this system betting on non-random? It just looks like she's betting on specific quads based on the result of the previous cycle with an extra "parlay" bet as you put it.

Re: NTH & Turner...Football Related

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Turner, I reckon West Ham will finish above City next season
Really?

Ill have to say this....and I am no gloater (not Goater)

City have made steady progression since the turning point. Zabbaletta  and Kompany

People think City are here because they bought the league, but these 2 have been here 8 years

It started then. We have got better and better over 8 years.

This season is an anomaly. Leicester win and teams that hang on for the last 15 years get relegated. West Ham and Spurs have exceptional seasons but its in the context of the Anomaly.

They are having great seasons with points that would put them 5 places lower usually. They are not really having such a good season as it looks. Next year the Anomaly will not repeat.

I dont even see City as the top 4 due to the past we suffered. But 2 titles, and finishing in the top 4 for the last few years kinda says we are.

The Top 4 is being borrowed by teams who normally dont get close. Chelsea will flourish, UTD will, Arsenal and  City will. Leicester, West Ham, Spurs and Liverpool will be in the top 5 to 8

Im not even sure Leicester will make 11 or 12

They have had no injuries, no competitions (only 1) and no competition from the top 4, 5, 6

And will they keep their players?




Re: Random Thoughts

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Hi scarface,

This can best be visualized by a "tree"

You start at the top with the first spin.

You have two possibilities for the next spin:
1.  A repeat. Out of 3 possible dozens you can only pick one (the first spin)-> 1/3 this ends our spincycle of length one!

2. No repeat. Out of 3 possibilities you can choose from 2 (no repeat of the first spin)-> 2/3.

For the next spin we again have 2 possibilities
A. A repeat. Now we have 2 possibilities to choose from (2/3).  But remember: to reach this point, we first had to choose the second spin to be no repeat!

The total probability of a repeat on the second spin equals 2/3 x 2/3, which equals 4/9.

So yes, your calculation is correct!

Thank you for making this look so simple!  I was wondering where Pri got her statistic of 62%   :)

Re: Random Thoughts


Re: NTH & Turner...Football Related

Re: Random Thoughts

Re: Random Thoughts

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They have found one, are there more Non Random ways to beat roulette??

There are almost always many ways of achieving the same result. You dont need to use traditional advantage play. Just something that increases your odds of winning. Remember the difference between odds and payout.

Re: Random Thoughts

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random game of roulette can NOT be beaten
No one disagreeing that. All am saying is there are more non-random ways rather than  just exploit the wheel. The basic assumption people have taken is everything is random in the game of roulette. I am just saying that, that assumption doesn't hold good in certain aspects of roulette outcomes. When that assumption is shaken, all the proof we had so far doesn't hold good. Law of large numbers gets shaken when that assumption is shaken. Proof based on randomness and convergence gets shaken when you shake that assumption. It is always possible to obtain certain non-random events withing any random stream.

Re: Random Thoughts

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Not all systems are a waste of time.

I'm simply saying that if the gambler is wise, they will focus on systems that increase the accuracy of their predictions and on exploiting the non random nature of the gaming device/wheel.

Systems that may be worthwhile, and that may change the odds are:

1. Predictive methods.
2. Hot number systems on live wheels or machines that could theoretically exploit a defective/biased wheel.
3. Recent number hit related systems on live wheels or machines, again that could be indirectly or directly be exploiting a defective wheel and/or the dealing procedure.


Re: Random Thoughts

Regarding The Law Of Large Numbers/Strong Law Of Convergence And The Random Walk

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Regarding the law of large numbers/ strong law of convergence in roulette.  Regression to the mean nonsense in the system player's world (this isn't really what regression to the mean means, but it's what players often think it means). (Random walk)
 
 
Let's say the wheel has only two possible outcomes, red or black.
 
Our expectation moving forward is that black will hit about half of the time, and that red will hit about half of the time.
 
After ten spins our results with a little variance thrown in is as follows:
RBRRRRRBRB
 
 30% Black (3 hits)
70% Red hit.  (7 hits)
 
Now that there's an imbalance, what do you suppose our expectation is moving forward for the next set of 20 spins?   Is black due to hit more frequently than red?  Does black have to hit more than red for "system player's regression to the mean" or "system player's law of averages" to occur?   
 

 
Moving forward, we have 20 more spins below. Our expectation once again is that each color will hit equally.  But with a little variance thrown in the results are as follows.
RBRBBRBRBBRRRBBRRRBR
 
45% Black (9 hits)
55% Red (11hits)
 
Now take a close look at the grand totals for all 30 spins below.
 
40% Black (12 hits)
60% Red (18 hits)
 
Because black went from hitting only 30% of the times to hitting 40% of the time in the larger sample,  here's where some of you will say that "regression to the mean" is taking place.   (Some of you are probably also saying that it's the "law of averages".)

It's true that black hit more frequently, but it's still a net loser! In order for it to appear to regress to the mean, it didn't have to hit more than red in order to appear to catch up, all that needed to really take place was the spin sample had to grow larger!

 In small spin samples, the difference between how often the red and black hit can be quite large...percentage wise. moving forward, our expectation should always be just expectation, not that one color will hit more than the other to even out the imbalance!   Again, as the spin samples grow exponentially larger, regression to the mean appears to happen, even if the losing color never catches back up!

The strong law of convergence/law of large numbers/regression to the mean doesn't, can't, won't, will not make anyone's system work!  Not in small samples, big samples, wide samples, short samples, short term, near term, long term.  Ever!

-Real

Linkback: http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=16965.0

Re: Random Thoughts

Re: Random Thoughts

Re: Random Thoughts

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Insulting Lemmy Pic

And there sits Mr. Lard Ass Retard, never picked up an instrument in his life, cant switch on the mike, being a fat tool, living the dream, Shame.
Posting pics of a legend. Damn man!

Re: Random Thoughts

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And there sits Mr. Lard Ass Retard, never picked up an instrument in his life, cant switch on the mike, being a fat tool, living the dream, Shame.
Posting pics of a legend. Damn man!

Mike is actually spelled Mic, as in Microphone........unless you meant an actual person......in which case.....you are correct......I can't "switch on" mike......I'm straight. :thumbsup:

Re: Random Thoughts

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I'm requesting that the the mods delete the Lemmy posts, disgraceful to say the least.
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