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Re: Basics - that no one wants to hear

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It's true that after the 1st 3 numbers have hit, the 4th is not a rare event.  But if you predict that the next four numbers are going to be 21, 21, 21, 21, you can call that a rare event but to fully capitalize on it you have to start betting from the beginning.  The same with 21, 0, 13, 2.  You can see that predicting that the next four spins will give you 21, 0, 13, 2 is the same odds as predicting that the next 4 spins will be 21, 21, 21, 21.  A martingale is what comes to mind to fully capitalize on predicting that the next 4 spins will be any four numbers you can think of.  The problem with a martingale is that the accumulated amount you'd have to bet is more than you'd win on all the winning runs.  It's always going to be the case because the payoff is skewed for the casino.

It's like I have said a jillion times.  If there are numbers that if spun will cause you to lose, eventually enough of them will hit close enough together to take back all your winnings plus a little.

That's why I like to use my even chance progressions playing Blackjack.  With smart play, card counting and a mild progression, I have a much better chance to win than with roulette.  Also, in my opinion, it's a more exciting and entertaining game.  No offense to those of you who love roulette.

GLC

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